📊 Recent Form
Osasuna
Getafe
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Osasuna edge it at 44% against 30% for the draw and 26% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 13 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Osasuna came away with a 1-0 win at home against Getafe, settling a tight contest with a penalty from Budimir on the stroke of half-time. It's a clean sheet that keeps them moving up the table, and defensively they looked solid throughout—exactly the kind of outcome that wins you points in the grind of La Liga.
Our model had backed a 1-0 Osasuna victory, though it came in at just 44% of the predicted probability distribution, meaning we saw it as a plausible lean rather than the likeliest outcome. The model had leaned toward Osasuna largely on the back of their home advantage and Getafe's inconsistent form on the road, but also flagged a draw as a genuine possibility at 30%. Before kickoff, we'd expected this to be a tight, low-scoring affair—the stats suggested both sides would struggle to break each other down, and that's pretty much how it played out. Getafe came to defend and make life difficult, and Osasuna had to find a moment of quality or fortune to break through. They got it from the spot late in the first half, and that proved to be the difference.
The clean sheet aligns neatly with what the pre-match picture told us. Osasuna's home form had been ticking upward, and Getafe's away record had been rocky, so the foundation for a Osasuna win without conceding was always credible. Both sides knew what they were fighting for—Osasuna pushing for a higher finish, Getafe grinding out a result on unfamiliar turf. In the end, the penalty gave Osasuna the edge, and they held firm to collect the three points.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna Win | 6/5 2.20 | 43% | 44% | +1% |
| Draw | 15/8 2.92 | 32% | 30% | -2% |
| Getafe Win | 3/1 3.90 | 25% | 26% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Getafe mid-table (P11) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Osasuna in decent shape (57% win rate, home form DLW improving), Getafe inconsistent away (40% win rate overall, poor away run LLDLLDW)
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3 goals/game over last 8 meetings, away team historically dominant but recent neutral split
Stakes: Getafe mid-table P11 with low motivation vs Osasuna P7 with normal motivation — home side has clearer incentive to push
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 H2H meetings average 3 goals per game with away-dominant pattern, though recent fixtures show both teams scoring regularly — 3-2, 2-1, 1-2, and 1-1 all feature in the last five meetings, reinforcing a competitive, open fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
