📊 Recent Form
Osasuna
Levante
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Osasuna at 50%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 23% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 14 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 59/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Osasuna and Levante played out a goalless draw at El Sadar, a result that leaves both sides still hunting for the wins their relegation battles demand. Neither team managed to break through, and the match ended scoreless—a far cry from our pre-match prediction of a 2-1 Osasuna victory.
Our model had leaned toward an Osasuna win with a fairly balanced outlook across the probable outcomes: a 50% chance of a home victory, 23% for the draw, and 27% for Levante. The 0-0 finish fell outside our primary scenario, though a draw was plainly in play given the stakes and form context heading in. Before kickoff, the model had weighted a higher-scoring affair, banking on Osasuna's recent home potency and Levante's desperation to push the game toward open play. Instead, both sides proved stubborn in defence, and neither could find a cutting edge in front of goal.
For two teams fighting relegation, a point apiece offers something—a reprieve, a small buffer. But with both needing wins more than draws, this will feel like a missed opportunity for Osasuna at home. The model got this one wrong, and it's a fair reminder that even when the underlying factors point one way, football still has a habit of going another.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna Win | 4/5 1.82 | 52% | 50% | -2% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 23% | -3% |
| Levante Win Value | 7/2 4.48 | 22% | 27% | +5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Osasuna in relegation danger (P15, only 0 pt cushion)
- 🆘 Levante in relegation danger (P19/20)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Osasuna 3W in last 5, avg 1.56 scored at home; Levante patchy away (LWL), avg 0.65 scored overall
H2H: Osasuna dominant at home (2-0 Dec 2025, 3-1 Mar 2022), avg 2.5 goals/game across last 8
Stakes: Both sides in relegation danger — Osasuna (P15, 0pt cushion) and Levante (P19) desperate for points, amplifying intensity and home team's urgency
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Osasuna have won 4 of last 8 H2H meetings with 2 draws; at home specifically they've won convincingly (2-0, 3-1). Levante grabbed a late 3-2 away win in May 2026, showing they can score on the road but still conceded. Average of 2.5 goals per H2H game supports a 2-1 scoreline.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
