Panathinaikos and Paks served up a dramatic 2-2 draw in this UEFA Conference League knockout tie, with the match swinging in both directions across the 90 minutes. Paks struck first when Peto opened the scoring in the 35th minute off the back of a Horvath assist, but Panathinaikos levelled before the break through Jagusic's 44th-minute finish. The visitors regained the lead in the 57th when Gyorfi netted with Zeke's help, only for Panathinaikos to pull level again through Rastoder's 85th-minute strike, set up by de Vrij. The final whistle confirmed a 2-2 stalemate that leaves the tie wide open heading into extra time or a decider.

Our model backed a 2-0 win for Panathinaikos with a 64% probability for a home victory overall, so the draw — assigned just a 20% chance pre-kickoff — came as the least likely of the three main outcomes. The prediction leaned heavily on Panathinaikos' stronger home form and Paks' limited away threat, but the match played out as a genuine contest. Both sides found the net twice in a back-and-forth encounter that neither team could quite seal, and while Panathinaikos' aggregate position heading into the game still favours them, this draw has handed Paks genuine hope of progression.

The miss here reflects a tighter match than the model's pre-match data suggested. Panathinaikos' defensive solidity and Paks' fatigue were real factors, but Paks proved far more dangerous in open play than their underlying metrics hinted at, and the Greek side couldn't convert their pressure into the convincing margin that would have confirmed the prediction.