PAOK held their nerve in a knockout showdown against Dynamo Kyiv, securing a 2-0 win that sends them through the Europa League. Goals from Konstantelias either side of halftime—first in the 45+1' with an assist from Jogo, then again in the 48' set up by Michailidis—put the tie beyond doubt and eliminated the visitors despite the deficit they'd have to overturn from the first leg.

The match unfolded pretty much as our model had anticipated before kickoff. We'd predicted a 2-0 scoreline with PAOK favoured at 64% to win, which isn't the same as calling it a banker—there were plausible paths to a draw or a Kyiv upset—but it reflected PAOK's structural edge. They came into the game needing only to avoid a heavy defeat to progress, a position that typically breeds defensive discipline, while Dynamo Kyiv were chasing the tie away from home, a notoriously tough spot in knockout football. PAOK's home form had shown attacking threat, and Kyiv's away record hadn't offered much in the way of goalscoring punch, so the clean sheet and measured attacking output fit the pre-match read pretty cleanly.

It was a workmanlike second-leg performance rather than a spectacle—exactly the sort of controlled, clinical showing you'd expect from a side that had already got themselves in front on aggregate and weren't going to gift their opponents a lifeline. Konstantelias's double put the matter to bed early in the second half, and PAOK coasted home from there. The model got the exact scoreline right, which is always a bit of a gift in football, and it reflected the balance of leverage heading into kickoff.