Paraguay vs Nicaragua
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay Win | 1/10 1.11 | 85% | 42% | -43% |
| Draw Value | 7/1 8.50 | 11% | 35% | +24% |
| Nicaragua Win Value | 20/1 23.00 | 4% | 23% | +19% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 11 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Paraguay (85% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Paraguay WLLD with low scoring recently; Nicaragua DLL with near-zero attacking output
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Friendly match but large ELO gap means quality differential likely overrides motivation factors
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Nicaragua avg just 0.27 goals — clean sheet favoured for Paraguay; Under 2.5 is plausible but Paraguay's home quality edge pushes total to exactly 2 goals
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Nicaragua have scored just 0.27 goals per game on average and have failed to score in two of their last three matches. Against a Paraguay side with full squad available and a 333-point ELO advantage, Nicaragua are very unlikely to breach the home defence, making BTTS improbable. Paraguay are expected to score but Nicaragua staying scoreless is the most consistent outcome with recent form.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The predicted scoreline of 2-0 totals exactly 2 goals, sitting under the 2.5 threshold. Paraguay's own recent attacking output has been moderate (0.82 avg), and this is a low-stakes friendly. Nicaragua's defensive record is poor but their attack is so limited that a slow-paced friendly is unlikely to produce a high-scoring affair, keeping the total under 2.5.