Paris FC came from behind expectations to beat Strasbourg 2-1 at home, flipping a prediction that had favored the visitors. Our model had pegged the likeliest outcome at 1-2 to Strasbourg, assigning Paris FC just a 40% chance of victory — not the favorite, but a genuine possibility among plausible results.

Kebbal opened the scoring for Paris FC in the 18th minute, assisted by Sinayoko, and the designated home side doubled their lead through Pagis just after the hour mark, with López setting him up. Strasbourg pulled one back late on through an own goal credited to Mbow in the 88th minute, but it wasn't enough to salvage a result. The match delivered a one-goal margin, not the higher-scoring affair our model had leaned toward. Going in, we'd flagged that both sides tended to find the net, and the fixture history pointed toward plenty of goals — last time these two met competitively here, Strasbourg had won 3-2. This time, though, Paris FC's attack made its chances count despite missing some key personnel, and the visitors' away struggles proved telling in the end.

Our model didn't call this one right. We'd weighted the draw and an away win more heavily than what actually unfolded, underestimating how much Paris FC's home advantage and top-four hunger would translate into a win. That's the nature of probabilistic forecasting — you pick your leans based on the information in front of you, and sometimes the match takes a different path. This was one of those nights.