📊 Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain
Lyon
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Paris Saint Germain at 58%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 18% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Paris Saint Germain at 58% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 67% — a gap against us of 9 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain Win | 4/9 1.43 | 67% | 58% | -9% |
| Draw | 9/2 5.40 | 18% | 18% | ±0% |
| Lyon Win Value | 11/2 6.50 | 15% | 24% | +9% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Paris Saint Germain in title race (P2)
- 🏆 Lyon in title race (P1)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Ligue 1 history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Paris Saint Germain xG 2.12 | Lyon xG 1.15
Projected: 64% / 14% / 22%
H2H: 6W-0D-2L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
6W-0D-2L for Paris Saint Germain in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.