📊 Recent Form
Partick
Dunfermline
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. a draw edge it at 43% against 43% for the draw and 35% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–0 points to Partick while the probabilities favour a draw. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have a draw at 43% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 27% — a gap in our favour of 16 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Partick secured a 2-1 victory over Dunfermline in a match that unfolded in two distinct halves. Craig Gilmour's 34th-minute opener handed the visitors an unexpected lead at the break, but Partick's response after the interval proved decisive. Liam Chalmers levelled the contest just ten minutes into the second period before turning provider for Anthony Samuel's 75th-minute winner. The home side's ability to turn the game around reflected their superior form and home advantage, though the pathway to victory proved more complicated than the pre-match data suggested.
Our model predicted a 1-0 Partick win with 35% confidence in a home victory, and while we correctly identified the result direction, the actual scoreline departed from expectations. The Dunfermline opener was the primary deviation—visiting sides rarely trouble Partick at Firhill, and the underlying xG figures (0.95 to 0.75 in Partick's favour) pointed toward a tighter, lower-scoring encounter. Gilmour's goal represented a rare moment of Dunfermline efficiency away from home, disrupting the pattern suggested by their inconsistent recent form. However, our assessment of Partick's home dominance and second-half intensity proved sound; the hosts' comeback illustrated precisely why their home record—including consecutive 2-0 and 1-0 victories in recent fixtures—commands respect. The win maintains Partick's position in what remains a competitive end-of-season battle.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partick Win | 5/6 1.85 | 51% | 35% | -16% |
| Draw Value | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 43% | +16% |
| Dunfermline Win | 10/3 4.19 | 22% | 22% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Partick in solid home form (DWWD), Dunfermline inconsistent away (DWDLW)
H2H: Partick dominant at home — 4 wins in last 8, recent home fixtures 2-0 and 1-0
Stakes: Business end of season elevates intensity; both teams competing for final positions
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Partick have won 4 of the last 8 meetings including both recent home fixtures (2-0 and 1-0). Three draws in the series. Dunfermline's sole H2H win came away. Avg 2.1 goals per game across the series, but recent meetings have trended tighter.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
