📊 Recent Form
PEC Zwolle
Feyenoord
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Feyenoord at 58%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 18% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Feyenoord at 58% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 66% — a gap against us of 8 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 4 goals. Comfortably over 2.5 and above the average match — the model expects both defences to give something up.
Confidence is filed as high at 76/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Feyenoord come into this one sitting third and desperately needing the points to keep pressure on the top two, and their form backs that up with seven wins from their last ten. PEC Zwolle are hovering just above the relegation zone and have been pretty woeful recently, losing six of their last ten. The head-to-head tells you everything you need to know — eight straight defeats against Feyenoord — and that trend looks set to continue here, with Zwolle's squad weakened by the absences of Namli, Krastev, and Burger.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle Win Value | 5/1 6.10 | 15% | 24% | +9% |
| Draw | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 18% | -1% |
| Feyenoord Win | 4/9 1.43 | 66% | 58% | -8% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 PEC Zwolle in relegation danger (P13, only 2 pt cushion)
- 🎯 Feyenoord chasing top-2 (P3)
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: PEC Zwolle (8d) vs Feyenoord (3d) — PEC Zwolle significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: PEC Zwolle averaging 1.28 scored / 1.98 conceded; Feyenoord averaging 2.18 scored with 70% win rate
H2H: Feyenoord won all 8 meetings, averaging 4.3 goals/game with clear away dominance
Stakes: PEC Zwolle in relegation danger adds some home urgency but squad quality gap is too large; Feyenoord chasing top-2 spot
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-3.
⚔️ Head to Head
Feyenoord have dominated this fixture completely — 8 wins from 8, including 5-1, 6-1, 5-0, and 4-0 scorelines. PEC Zwolle have failed to beat or draw Feyenoord in recent history and rarely score in these meetings.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-3 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-3 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
