Peru vs Spain
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peru Win Value | 16/1 17.00 | 6% | 25% | +19% |
| Draw Value | 6/1 7.20 | 13% | 35% | +22% |
| Spain Win | 1/7 1.15 | 81% | 40% | -41% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 12 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Spain (81% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Peru WLDL with low scoring averages; Spain data limited but ELO and market imply strong dominance
H2H: Limited historical data available
Stakes: International friendly — Spain likely to field strong squad given World Cup 2026 preparation; Peru seeking morale boost but outclassed
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Peru's limited attacking threat vs Spain's defensive structure; Under 2.5 total goals plausible but Spain scoring twice is the most likely outcome
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — historically rare matchup but ELO gap of 655 points makes Spain heavy favourites in any meeting
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The 1-2 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
Total goals are predicted at exactly 2 (0-2), keeping this under the 2.5 threshold. Although Spain are dominant, this is a friendly with possible squad rotation, and Peru's defensive resilience (0.75 conceded avg) may limit the margin to a controlled two-goal Spain win.