📊 Recent Form
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Philadelphia Union a 60% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Philadelphia Union at 60% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 65% — a gap against us of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Philadelphia Union moved past CF Montreal with a 2-0 victory at home, securing the result our model had pinpointed before kickoff. Danley Jean Jacques opened the scoring in the 57th minute, and despite Montreal pulling level through Prince-Osei Owusu's penalty in the 68th, Cavan Sullivan restored Union's lead at the 75-minute mark to seal it.
Our pre-match prediction of 2-0 landed spot on—the model's most likely outcome at 60% for a Union win. The fixture played out broadly in line with the pre-kickoff shape: Union came in strong at home with Montreal struggling away, and that gap showed across the 90 minutes. The clean sheet didn't quite materialize for Philadelphia thanks to the penalty, but the two-goal margin matched expectations built on Union's superior form and their dominance in this particular head-to-head.
It's a straightforward call that checked out. Not flashy, just solid match reading—the kind that comes from knowing these teams' patterns and where they sit in the table. Union stay competitive for playoff positioning; Montreal have some ground to make up on the road.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union Win | 4/9 1.45 | 65% | 60% | -5% |
| Draw | 4/1 4.85 | 20% | 24% | +4% |
| CF Montreal Win | 11/2 6.35 | 15% | 16% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Philadelphia Union in strong shape (60% win rate, 2.13 goals/game scored); CF Montreal struggling away (DLWL) with 1.3 goals/game scored
H2H: Union dominant in this fixture — 5 wins from last 8 meetings, average 3.5 goals/game overall but Union have won 4 of last 5 direct meetings
Stakes: Mid-table MLS regular season — neither side in a desperate position, but Union have home pride and playoff positioning incentive
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Philadelphia Union have dominated this fixture recently, winning 5 of the last 8 meetings including three of the last four. H2H averages 3.5 goals per game historically, but the last five meetings have been mostly tight affairs with Union winning 2-1 or 1-2 scorelines prevailing.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.