Philadelphia Union and Charlotte played out an absorbing 2-2 draw on Saturday, with the match swinging decisively in Charlotte's favour during the second half before the Union clawed back late on. Iloski opened from the penalty spot in the 24th minute to give Philadelphia the lead, but Charlotte emerged sharply after the interval. Aloko levelled things up in the 48th minute with an assist from Jorno, and Jorno himself added a second just fourteen minutes later with David Schnegg providing the assist. The Union refused to fold, though. Damiani pulled one back in the 73rd minute—set up by Jean Jacques—to leave both sides level heading into the closing stages, and neither team found a way through to snatch all three points.

Our model had predicted a 2-1 Philadelphia win, assigning the draw a 25% probability. That made Saturday's outcome a genuine lean against our expectation, not a wild upset, but still the wrong call. Going in, the model weighed Philadelphia's home form and attacking threat more heavily than Charlotte's ability to score on the road and keep things tight—a fair lean given the Union's position, but one that didn't account for Charlotte's second-half intensity or Philadelphia's wastefulness in front of goal. The low-scoring nature of the fixture held true to pre-match form, and both teams did get on the board as expected, but the equal split of goals between them told a different story than the one we'd sketched out before kickoff.