Philadelphia Union put on a dominant display to beat Orlando City SC 4-2 in a match that ran away from expectations in terms of goals, if not outcome. Our model had backed the Union to win—at 60% probability it was the most likely result—but called for a tighter 2-1 scoreline. What actually unfolded was a far more expansive affair, with the Union's attack clicking into gear from the opening moments.

Iloski was the star turn, netting a penalty in the 11th minute before adding a second just eight minutes later courtesy of Vassilev's assist. Vassilev himself got on the scoresheet after the break, setting up Bueno's cutback for a clinical finish in the 47th minute. Iloski completed his hat-trick from Vassilev's assist in the 51st, putting the Union well clear at 4-0. Orlando pulled two back through Angulo in the 78th, assisted by Griezmann, and Ojeda in the 90th, courtesy of Harvey Graham Sarajian's set-up, but the damage was already done. The Union's recent form and attacking threat at home had suggested they'd be hard to stop, and that's exactly how it played out—they just finished with more ruthlessness than the model had anticipated. A solid result-call that underestimated the margin, and a reminder that even strong attacking sides can shift gears once they find the back of the net early.