Philippines vs Myanmar
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines Win | 1/2 1.50 | 61% | 37% | -24% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 4.10 | 23% | 37% | +14% |
| Myanmar Win Value | 5/1 5.86 | 16% | 26% | +10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Philippines avg 1 goal scored/conceded, 50% win rate; Myanmar avg 0.8 scored/conceded, 0% win rate in away games
H2H: 1 Philippines win, 1 draw in last 2 meetings; last match was 1-1 in Dec 2024
Stakes: International friendly — limited competitive motivation for either side, both mid-table in regional context
Betting: Bookmakers imply 66% home win probability but statistical model and H2H both point strongly to a draw; low-scoring match expected under 2.5 goals
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 2 meetings average 3.5 goals but the most recent clash was a tight 1-1 in December 2024, suggesting the gap between these sides has narrowed significantly and low-scoring draws are now the pattern.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The 1-1 scoreline projects both teams scoring. The engine's underlying probability model gives both sides enough offensive output to find the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Despite the H2H historical average of 3.5 goals, the most recent meeting was 1-1 and both teams post modest attacking averages (Philippines 1.0, Myanmar 0.8). With no competitive stakes and the statistical model projecting xG below 0.8 per side, the total is expected to stay under 2.5 goals.