Plzen's stunning 4-1 comeback against FK Crvena Zvezda has turned this Europa League tie on its head. After trailing 3-0 from the first leg, Plzen needed a monumental effort to progress, and they delivered exactly that. Adu opened the scoring in the eighth minute with help from Souare, then Ivanic levelled for the visitors just three minutes later. But the tie swung decisively in Plzen's favour when Bukari was sent off for FK Crvena Zvezda in the 53rd minute. From that point on, the designated home side took control. Adu added a second from the penalty spot in the 51st minute, Visinsky made it 3-1 from another penalty in the 58th, and Hrosovsky extended the lead to 4-1 in the 63rd minute, assisted by Cerv. Late goals from Kabongo and Krcik sealed a thoroughly one-sided second half, with Krcik's finish courtesy of Kabongo's assist.

Our model leaned towards FK Crvena Zvezda at 38 per cent and predicted a 0-1 scoreline, which left Plzen's chances at just 33 per cent. That was always a thin margin in a knockout tie with maximum attacking stakes, and the match bore that out. We'd flagged that Plzen would come out swinging due to the aggregate deficit, while FK Crvena Zvezda would play defensively to protect their lead, but we underestimated how badly things would unravel for the visitors once they went down to ten men. The red card proved the pivot point—it wasn't a factor our model could predict, but it transformed what might've been a tight contest into a rout. Plzen's attacking intent and desperation simply overwhelmed a side that couldn't afford to lose its shape.