📊 Recent Form
Plzen
Levski Sofia
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Plzen edge it at 42% against 25% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Levski Sofia while the probabilities favour Plzen. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Plzen at 42% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 53% — a gap against us of 11 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Levski Sofia held their nerve in a tightly contested Europa League knockout to knock out Plzen 2-1 and progress from the tie. The Sofia side took the lead through Francisco Everton Mota de Castro in the 44th minute, with an assist from Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno setting up a first-half advantage. Plzen came back level when Christopher Kabongo scored in the 62nd minute, courtesy of a Cheick Souare assist, but Levski sealed it just three minutes later. Satorno got his name on the scoresheet in the 65th minute, assisted by Maicon Araújo dos Santos, to secure a one-goal win and send the Bulgarian outfit through.
Our model leaned toward exactly this scoreline at 1-2 to Levski, though that was just one plausible outcome among several — the draw and a Plzen win both carried meaningful probability in a fixture with knockout stakes and little prior history between the sides. The pre-match picture suggested Levski's away form looked stronger than Plzen's inconsistent home record, a lean that played out fairly true to type. Plzen did get a foothold in the match after the break and could've pushed for an equaliser, but Levski's clinical finish inside 65 minutes proved decisive and kept them alive in the competition.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen Win | 8/11 1.75 | 53% | 42% | -11% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.87 | 25% | 25% | ±0% |
| Levski Sofia Win Value | 10/3 4.30 | 22% | 33% | +11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Plzen inconsistent at home (WLLDW), Levski dominant away (WDWDWW)
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — full motivation both sides, elimination on the line
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.