QPR swept past Portsmouth with a dominant second-half performance to claim a 3-1 victory at Fratton Park. Devlin gave the hosts an early lead with a well-taken finish in the 15th minute, assisted by Adams, but it proved a false dawn. Chair levelled things up just before the half-hour mark—teed up by Vale—and then added a second eight minutes later, this time playing provider for Saito's clinical finish. By half-time, QPR had completely turned the match on its head, and Chair wrapped up the scoring deep into added time with a third, set up by Mbengue, to seal a commanding away win.

Our model leaned slightly towards a QPR victory at 35% and predicted a narrow 0-1 scoreline, so we got the result direction right but underestimated how convincingly the visitors would dominate. The pre-match assessment flagged Portsmouth's mixed recent form and QPR's strong run, along with the visitors' reliable away record, so the broad shape of a QPR win aligned with those expectations. Where we missed was the margin—the model anticipated a tighter affair with one side edging a low-scoring game, but QPR's second-half intensity and clinical finishing made it a more comfortable affair than the 0-1 projection suggested.

It's a reminder that even when the underlying factors point you in the right direction, the actual scoreline can surprise. Portsmouth will need to regroup quickly; QPR, meanwhile, have announced themselves as genuine contenders with a performance that underlined why their recent form has been so strong.