Millwall got the job done at Preston with a single goal, taking the points through Neghli's finish in the 79th minute, assisted by Cundle. It was a tight affair that never quite opened up into the multi-goal affair our model had leaned towards, but the result itself went the way we'd predicted — a Millwall win.

Before kickoff, our model fancied Millwall at 42% to take three points, with Preston at 31% and a draw at 27%. That lean reflected Millwall's superior recent form and their dominance in the head-to-head record, set against Preston's struggles in the relegation zone. The actual scoreline — 0-1 — differed from our predicted 1-2, and it came with markedly fewer goals than we'd flagged as likely. The match played out more defensively than the pre-match shape suggested, with Preston unable to create the chances our model had expected them to fashion at home, and Millwall's attack less prolific than their recent underlying numbers might have implied.

Winning away in the Championship is never straightforward, and Millwall got it done efficiently despite the low-scoring nature of the encounter. For Preston, it's another defeat that deepens their predicament at the bottom end. Our model called the winner correctly but missed the scale of the scoreline — a reminder that even when the direction is right, Championship football can surprise you on the details.