Preston and West Brom shared the spoils in a Championship encounter that defied our pre-match lean toward a comfortable away win. Our model had backed West Brom to edge this one 2-0, anchored by their superior form and a dominant head-to-head record. The draw probability sat at just 24%, so what unfolded was genuinely outside our central expectation—though not so far out as to be unreasonable.

The match came alive late. Preston broke through in the 78th minute when Andrew Hughes finished after Leo Leroy had set him up, dragging the hosts level and giving them something to fight for. West Brom responded quickly, as you'd expect from a mid-table side with more stable form, with Aune Heggebo leveling again four minutes later at 82'. That was that. A 1-1 finish meant neither side got what they came for, but both walked away with a point.

Our prediction missed the result direction and the exact scoreline. The model had weighted West Brom's quality edge and Preston's desperate position, but underestimated how much pressure and motivation can matter when relegation is on the line—and perhaps read too much into that historical dominance. Preston's vulnerability was real, but so was their willingness to scrap hard at home. The draw was always in the mix; we just didn't fancy it enough. That's the job sometimes.