Qarabag secured a commanding 2-0 victory over Dynamo Kyiv in the UEFA Conference League, sealing their progression with a performance that matched our pre-match prediction exactly. Mouaddib opened the scoring in the 12th minute with an assist from Matheus Silva, giving the designated home side an early grip on the tie. The second came much later, in the 69th minute, when Kashchuk added a second from Cafarquliyev's assist to settle the contest and book Qarabag's place in the next round.

Our model's most likely outcome before kickoff was a 2-0 Qarabag win — assigned a 65% probability — and that's precisely how it unfolded. The pre-match analysis leaned on Qarabag's attacking intent at home and Dynamo Kyiv's mixed away form and fatigue from a tight turnaround. The match broadly played out in line with those expectations: Qarabag were clinical in front of goal, Dynamo Kyiv sat deep and offered little resistance, and the clean sheet materialized as flagged. It's rare to nail the exact scoreline in football, so when the model does, it usually signals that the underlying factors — home advantage, form differential, tactical setup — aligned cleanly with the prediction. That's what happened here.

Qarabag advance to the next stage with a satisfying performance that required exactly the winning margin the tie demanded. Dynamo Kyiv's night ended in elimination, unable to force the comeback their position in the aggregate score had briefly promised.