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Queen's Park
Raith Rovers
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Queen's Park edge it at 39% against 27% for the draw and 34% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Raith Rovers while the probabilities favour Queen's Park. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Queen's Park at 39% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 25% — a gap in our favour of 14 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Raith Rovers came away from Hampden with a 2-1 win that keeps their promotion push on track. Telfer opened the scoring in the 39th minute, and Rovers looked comfortable in control until McLean pulled one back for Queen's Park in the 77th. Dowds sealed it from the penalty spot in the 58th, giving Raith a workable lead that they held through to the final whistle.
Our model called a 1-2 scoreline beforehand, which matched exactly how it played out. The prediction came with 34% backing for a Raith win—a solid lean but far from a banker, and one that reflected the uncertainty baked into a promotion-chasing side facing a desperate home team. Queen's Park's form at Hampden has been solid, and the relegation stakes made this a genuine contest on paper. The match unfolded largely as those pre-match fundamentals suggested: Raith's defensive setup held up well, Queen's Park created chances but couldn't find a way through until late, and the total of three goals fell in line with the Championship pattern we'd flagged from their head-to-head history.
Raith's away control—flagged as a strength before kickoff—proved the difference. They didn't need to be spectacular, just professional, and that's what they delivered. For Queen's Park, the loss keeps the pressure on, though they at least got on the board and showed they could trouble a solid defensive unit. The result sends Raith forward in their promotion race; Queen's Park will need to respond quickly.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen's Park Win Value | 11/4 3.68 | 25% | 39% | +14% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.30 | 28% | 27% | -1% |
| Raith Rovers Win | 10/11 1.95 | 47% | 34% | -13% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Queen's Park in relegation danger (P9/10)
- ⬆️ Raith Rovers in promotion hunt (P4)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Queen's Park solid at home (WW) but concede regularly; Raith Rovers tight defensively away (DD, 0.67 avg conceded)
H2H: Raith Rovers lead 4-2-2 in last 8, avg 3.4 goals/game — historically high-scoring fixture
Stakes: Queen's Park in relegation danger (P9/10) adds home urgency; Raith in promotion hunt (P4) brings quality motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Raith Rovers have won 4 of the last 8 H2H meetings with Queen's Park winning just 2. Recent clashes include a 0-2 Raith away win and a 4-1 demolition, highlighting Raith's ability to score freely against this side. Average of 3.4 goals per game signals an open fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.