FK Jablonec overturned the script in Prague, storming to a 2-1 victory over Rīgas FS in a UEFA Conference League knockout tie that left our pre-match call in pieces. Sedlacek opened the scoring early for Jablonec in the 4th minute, assisted by Polidar, then Nebyla doubled the lead from the penalty spot in the 22nd. Rīgas pulled one back through Lipuscek in the 38th, set up by Zelenkovs, but couldn't find an equalizer despite their desperate need for goals. The tie turned uglier when Filipovic saw red for Rīgas in the 83rd, effectively ending any comeback hopes.

Our model had backed a 2-0 home win with 65% confidence in Rīgas, but the designated home side only managed a single goal and fell to defeat. That outcome carried just 15% probability in our pre-match numbers — a genuine long shot. We'd weighted Rīgas's recent form and home advantage heavily, expecting them to dominate, while Jablonec's away record and conservative defensive setup suggested they'd sit deep and soak up pressure. The actual match took the opposite shape: Jablonec came out sharp and clinical, seized early control through Sedlacek's opener, and Nebyla's penalty gave them a cushion Rīgas couldn't overcome.

The red card muddied the latter stages, but the damage was done well before that. Jablonec's aggression from the whistle caught our model flat-footed — we'd banked on them absorbing rather than attacking, and they did neither. It's a reminder that even thorough pre-match analysis can't account for how a team chooses to set up on the night, especially in knockout football where one-off momentum can count for more than form lines.