Racing Santander 3–2 Elche was a match that got away from what our pre-match model had sketched out. We'd leaned toward a 1–0 Racing win, giving them a 41% chance of victory — the most likely outcome, but hardly a confident one. The actual game turned into a proper goal fest, nothing like the low-scoring affair the numbers suggested.

Racing came out and took over from the jump. Zabiri was clinical in front of goal, firing past Elche's defence three times. He opened the scoring on 15 minutes, doubled his tally six minutes later on 21, then completed his hat-trick on 36 with an assist from Vicente. By halftime, Racing had built what looked like an unassailable lead. But Elche weren't done. They pulled two back in quick succession late on — Sangare making it 3–1 on 78 minutes with help from Cepeda, then Nino adding a second on 79, set up by Tete Morente. The rally came too late to matter, though it did salvage some pride.

What went wrong with the prediction? Our model had weighted the defensive solidity of both sides and the low-scoring pattern in their recent matchups, which pointed toward a tighter contest. The reality was that Racing found their finishing touch when it counted and overwhelmed Elche in the first half. That said, the model did nail the result direction — a Racing win — even if it badly missed on the scoreline. Sometimes the right team wins, just not always in the shape you expect.