📊 Recent Form
Raith Rovers
Stenhousemuir
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. a draw edge it at 42% against 42% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–0 points to Raith Rovers while the probabilities favour a draw. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 56/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Raith Rovers and Stenhousemuir played out a 1-1 draw at Stark's Park, with the match swinging between the two sides in a fairly even contest. McMullan put Rovers ahead in the 19th minute with help from Easton, but Stenhousemuir hit back just after the half-hour when Hodgkiss levelled things up at 30 minutes. Neither side could find a winner after that, and they ended on level terms.
Our model had backed a 1-0 Rovers win as the most likely outcome, but assigned a 42% probability to a draw—the second-best option on the night. This one landed in that plausible-but-not-favoured space, and that's exactly how the numbers should work. The forecast was built on Rovers' home resilience and the historical pattern of low-scoring meetings between these two, but draws were always a realistic possibility in a fixture between mid-table sides with no pressing stakes at this early stage of the season. Stenhousemuir's away record came in light on data, so there was always uncertainty in that corner of the prediction, and it showed here.
The match itself stayed tight and competitive, which fitted the pre-match shape. A clean sheet didn't happen for either team, and while there were goals at both ends, the total didn't balloon. It's the kind of result that keeps both sides ticking over without moving the needle much either way, and the model didn't quite call it—but it wasn't a wild miss either.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆕 Fresh standings — no meaningful positions established yet, both sides starting on equal footing
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Raith home form shows defensive resilience (0.56 avg conceded), low scoring but winning; Stenhousemuir limited away data with mixed results
H2H: Raith dominant — 3 wins, 1 draw in last 4; avg 3.5 goals historically but those meetings are 6-7 years old and both teams have since tightened up
Stakes: Both sides mid-table early in season, no elevated motivation for either — normal competitive intensity expected
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Raith Rovers have won 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings including a 5-1 demolition, with home fixtures averaging high goals — however all meetings are from 2018-2019 and may not reflect current team quality or form.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.