Real Madrid made light work of Real Sociedad to cruise to a 4-1 victory and underline their dominance at the Bernabéu. Mbappe was the star turn, bagging a hat-trick either side of the interval — first in the 40th minute when he finished off Valverde's cross, then again on the hour mark from Bellingham's assist, and a third in the 80th when Vinicius Junior picked him out. Bellingham also set up Vinicius for the third goal in the 68th minute, wrapping up a comfortable afternoon. Real Sociedad grabbed a consolation through Sucic in the 44th minute, but they never looked like threatening a proper comeback.

Our model's pre-match prediction of a 3-1 Madrid win proved the right shape but off by one goal — Real Madrid's 67% win probability was the most likely outcome, though we missed the exact scoreline. The underlying form pointed that way before kickoff: Madrid unbeaten at home with a strong record of closing out opponents, while Sociedad had lost their last four on the road and looked vulnerable to the counter. That pattern held up. Where we got it wrong was simply underestimating Madrid's firepower once they got rolling; Mbappe's clinical finishing and Bellingham's creative pull in midfield left Sociedad's creaky away-day defence picked apart.

It was a straightforward afternoon for the home side — they controlled tempo, worked the space on the wings, and didn't need to get out of second gear. Sociedad's push to stay up meant they chased the game, but they lacked the quality to punish Madrid's occasional lapses and paid the price on the break. Madrid move on; Sociedad's troubles look set to deepen.