📊 Recent Form
Real Sociedad
Bournemouth
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 42%. Bournemouth edge it at 41% against 27% for the draw and 32% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 72/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bournemouth came away from San Sebastián with a 2-1 win and a place in the next round of the Europa League, finishing the job despite Real Sociedad's second-half fight-back. The visitors were clinical early on, with Kluivert breaking the deadlock in the 11th minute after a neat setup from Truffert, then Simplício Rocha doubling the lead just nine minutes later off a cross from Alex Scott. Real Sociedad pulled one back through Gómez in the 57th minute—a finish set up by Beitia Aguirregomezcorta—but couldn't find the leveller they needed.
Our model had called this exact scoreline at 1-2, with Bournemouth's win probability sitting at 41% before kickoff, so the outcome landed where we'd leaned, though hardly as a foregone conclusion. The match unfolded broadly as the pre-match assessment expected: Bournemouth's superior attacking output and strong away form came through, while Real Sociedad's recent struggles—reflected in their mixed form—showed up in their inability to control the tie's early momentum. The two-goal start gave the South Coast side real breathing room, and although the host side did press late on, there was no dramatic comeback.
Europa League knockout football rarely offers second chances, and Bournemouth made their first-half dominance count. It wasn't flashy football, but it was efficient, and that's what mattered on the night.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad Win | 7/4 2.75 | 34% | 32% | -2% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 27% | ±0% |
| Bournemouth Win | 6/4 2.45 | 39% | 41% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Real Sociedad poor overall (LWDWLLLLLW, 30% win rate, 1.04 goals scored avg); Bournemouth in solid form (DWDDLLDWWW, 2.22 goals scored avg, strong away record DLLDW)
H2H: Two meetings, one draw 1-1 and one Real Sociedad win 2-1 — both low-scoring, both BTTS — avg 2.5 goals
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — full intensity from both sides, no rotation expected
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data (2 meetings), both at Bournemouth's ground. Results: 1-1 draw and 1-2 Real Sociedad win. Both games were competitive and ended BTTS with modest goal totals — pattern suggests a tight, both-teams-score outcome.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.