📊 Recent Form
Real Sociedad
Deportivo La Coruna
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Real Sociedad at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 28% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Real Sociedad at 45% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 60% — a gap against us of 15 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Real Sociedad came from behind to edge out Deportivo La Coruna 3-2 in a match that swung wildly in intensity and personnel over ninety minutes. The home side went two up through Jon Martin in the 29th minute — set up by Carlos Soler — and Arsen Zakharyan just five minutes later, then added a third via Gonçalo Guedes after the break, with Ander Barrenetxea picking out the assist. Deportivo pulled two back through Mario Soriano in the 61st minute, assisted by Riki Rodríguez, and Yeremay Hernández from the penalty spot nine minutes later, but couldn't find the equalizer. The match deteriorated into a scrap after that: Pablo Marin saw red for Real Sociedad in the 66th minute, and Lorenzo Amatucci got his marching orders for Deportivo deep into injury time.
Our model predicted a 2-1 Real Sociedad win with a 45% probability — a lean toward the home side among a fairly open set of outcomes rather than a confident call. The result picked the winner correctly but the scoreline didn't match: the actual three goals conceded by Deportivo and two more they managed to score pointed to a more open, higher-octane affair than the model had anticipated. Before kickoff, we'd flagged Real Sociedad's mixed home form and injury concerns against Deportivo's solid away record and defensive structure, which suggested a tighter game. The reality was looser and more end-to-end, especially in the first half when Real Sociedad ran out to a commanding lead before the red card in the second half compressed the contest and gave Deportivo genuine sniff at getting back into it.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad Win | 3/5 1.60 | 60% | 45% | -15% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 4.03 | 23% | 28% | +5% |
| Deportivo La Coruna Win Value | 9/2 5.60 | 17% | 27% | +10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Real Sociedad home form poor (LLLDW), heavy injuries/suspension; Deportivo away form solid (DDWD), compact defensive unit
H2H: High-scoring history (avg 3 goals/game), draw-prone overall but recent meetings show both teams capable of scoring
Stakes: Both teams mid-table (P7-P8), normal motivation — no relegation/promotion pressure skewing the result
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H averages 3 goals per game with draw-prone pattern, but Real Sociedad's home injury crisis and Deportivo's disciplined away structure favour a narrow away win rather than a high-scoring draw.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
