Real Sociedad ran out 2–1 winners against Levante in a match that unfolded in the visitors' favour early on, before the home side's quality began to show. Óskarsson opened the scoring after just six minutes, but Levante hit back hard through Pérez Gómez in the 22nd minute, finishing a move set up by Thiago Cruz Fernandez. The breakthrough came five minutes later when Turrientes restored Sociedad's lead with an assist from Gonçalo Guedes, and that proved enough to settle it.

Our model pinned this down as a 2–1 to Real Sociedad before kickoff, which means we got both the result and the exact scoreline spot on. That said, the win probability sat at 51% for Sociedad — not a slam dunk, just the most likely of three plausible outcomes. The pre-match picture suggested the home side would edge it: they were chasing a top-four finish with real motivation to chase, while Levante were mid-table with little at stake. Levante's away form had been patchy and their scoring output lower on average, which all pointed toward Real Sociedad controlling the tempo. The match itself ran pretty close to that script, even if Levante made a genuine game of it in the opening half-hour.

It's the kind of call where the model leans on the right team and the scoreline lands, but there's no crystal ball about it — 51% means two other outcomes were genuinely in play. Today it worked out, and Sociedad's ability to find the net quickly and respond to adversity kept them on course for their push up the table.