Rennes came from behind to edge Le Mans 3-2 in a match that swung dramatically on disciplinary action and set-piece execution. Lepaul got the hosts off to a flyer with an early finish from Thomasson's assist on five minutes, then Rongier doubled the lead just before the half-hour courtesy of a Soumare assist. Le Mans looked down and out, but pulled one back through Mafouta on the half-hour, and then levelled things up through the same player from the penalty spot early in the second half. With the score locked at 2-2, Sidibe's red card for Le Mans on 68 minutes shifted the momentum decisively. Rennes pushed hard, and a late penalty in the 90th minute—converted by Lepaul—sealed the win.

Our model had backed a 2-1 scoreline with a 57% lean toward a Rennes win, so the result direction was spot-on, but the actual finish caught us out on the exact score. The underlying expectation before kickoff was that Rennes' home advantage and slightly sharper recent form would give them the edge over a Le Mans side that's struggled on the road. The match did follow that broad pattern—Rennes took control early and should have put it to bed—but Le Mans showed real fight and got themselves right back into it before the sending off changed everything. It's a reminder that even when the eventual winner gets the job done, a few swings in fine margins (a couple of spot kicks, a red card) can push a game well clear of the prediction.