Sporting CP dismantled Rio Ave with a devastating 4-0 victory that underlined the gulf in quality and motivation between these two sides. The visitors were ruthless from the off: Goncalves opened the scoring in the fifth minute after being set up by Doumbia, then doubled the lead fourteen minutes later when Catamo tapped in after Goncalves turned provider. Suarez made it three in the 26th minute before adding a second himself in the 37th, courtesy of an assist from Araujo, to put the game completely beyond reach before half-time.

Our model predicted a 0-3 scoreline and gave Sporting CP a 58% chance of victory, so we nailed the result direction but underestimated just how dominant they'd be. The pre-match reasoning stacked heavily in their favour: Rio Ave were mid-table and unmotivated while Sporting CP were chasing the title and on a strong run, and the head-to-head record showed Sporting winning seven of their last eight meetings with an average of 3.6 goals per game. That disparity in stakes and form played out exactly as expected, except the scoreline shifted from a comfortable three-goal win to a flat four-goal rout. It's a reminder that even when the model gets the outcome right, the precise margin can still surprise—especially when one side is clicking in front of goal and the other has nothing left to play for.