📊 Recent Form
Rizespor
Alanyaspor
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Rizespor edge it at 44% against 27% for the draw and 29% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Rizespor at 44% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 50% — a gap against us of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 64/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Alanyaspor pulled off a 1-0 win at Rizespor in a match that played out nothing like the script we'd written beforehand. An own goal from Zakaria Ariss in the 70th minute proved the difference, handing the visitors all three points in what turned out to be a tight, low-scoring affair. Our model had backed a 2-1 home win, leaning heavily on Rizespor's solid home form and the historical trend of goals in this fixture. Instead, we got a cagey contest decided by a single slice of misfortune.
Before kickoff, the model assigned just 29% to an Alanyaspor win, so this wasn't the likeliest outcome we'd called—though it wasn't implausible either. We'd weighted the fixture toward a more open, higher-scoring game based on the head-to-head record averaging over two goals and Rizespor's stronger recent record. Alanyaspor's relegation battle was factored in as motivation, but not enough to flip the lean decisively their way. The match clearly didn't follow that template. Rizespor couldn't break through despite home advantage, and Alanyaspor got the result they needed through a defensive mishap rather than any clinical attack.
This is exactly why we track these calls transparently. The model had a reasonable read on the fixture based on the data available, but football doesn't always cooperate with the numbers. Alanyaspor got lucky and ruthless at once—they're leaving with the points, and sometimes that's all that matters.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor Win | 5/6 1.86 | 50% | 44% | -6% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 27% | -1% |
| Alanyaspor Win Value | 10/3 4.20 | 22% | 29% | +7% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Alanyaspor in relegation danger (P13, only 3 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Rizespor 60% win rate overall, solid at home; Alanyaspor only 40% win rate, poor away (L, D)
H2H: 8 meetings average 2.1 goals/game; Rizespor won 3-1 at home in March 2025; recent encounters have been competitive and goal-laden
Stakes: Alanyaspor in relegation danger (P13, 3pt cushion) brings motivation boost, but home pressure from Rizespor is equally important
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Alanyaspor lead overall H2H (4 wins vs 1), but Rizespor won 3-1 at home in March 2025 and draws are common (3 of 8). Average of 2.1 goals per game suggests open encounters.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
