Rosario Central and Tigre played out a 1-1 draw on the road to the business end of the season, with neither side able to secure the decisive edge despite an intensity befitting the stakes. Augusto Soto's 38th-minute finish, set up by Carlos Quintana, gave the home side the advantage at the break. That lead held until the 81st minute, when Diego Romero leveled for the visitors. The match took a late turn when Jabes Saralegui received a red card deep into injury time, leaving Tigre a man down in the closing moments.

Our model predicted a 2-0 Rosario Central victory with 58% win probability, missing the mark on both the result direction and exact scoreline. The prediction hinged on Rosario Central's solid home form—1.76 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game—contrasted against Tigre's blunt away attack, averaging just 0.75 goals per match. We flagged both teams' recent tendency toward tight, low-scoring contests in head-to-head meetings, and an Under 2.5 goals lean seemed plausible given those dynamics. What we underestimated was Tigre's capacity to find a goal despite their poor attacking form this season. Rosario Central's inability to extend their lead after Soto's opener allowed the visitors back into the contest, a vulnerability our model didn't adequately price in.

The draw leaves both sides with a point apiece, though Rosario Central will rue the missed opportunity to capitalize on home advantage and their superior form going into a critical phase of the campaign.