📊 Recent Form
Saburtalo
Larne
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Saburtalo at 51%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 29% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Saburtalo at 51% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 55% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 63/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Saburtalo and Larne couldn't be separated across 90 minutes, finishing 1-1 in this UEFA Europa League knockout tie. Bedoshvili opened the scoring for Saburtalo in the 74th minute, assisted by Sikharulashvili, but Larne levelled just two minutes later when Simpson found the net. The deadlock held through normal time and into extra time, where Sikharulashvili grabbed the winner in the 102nd minute, assisted by Dadiani, to send the designated home side through.
Our model predicted a 1-0 Saburtalo victory with a 51% win probability, but the draw sat at just 29% — so we badly missed the mark. The pre-match assessment leant heavily on Saburtalo's stronger home form and Larne's lack of attacking cutting edge, expecting a tight contest that stayed under 2.5 goals. That part played out — this was indeed a low-scoring, tightly contested encounter. What we hadn't banked on was Larne finding a way to level after falling behind, or Saburtalo needing extra time to break them. The tight, defensive nature of the first leg (0-0) and the elimination stakes suggested exactly the kind of narrow scoreline that materialised, just not in the clean-sheet fashion we'd pencilled in. The match unfolded as the kind of tie the context promised: cagey, decisive at set moments, and settled by a single goal difference across the 120 minutes.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saburtalo Win | 4/6 1.68 | 55% | 51% | -4% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.55 | 26% | 29% | +3% |
| Larne Win | 4/1 4.90 | 19% | 20% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 0-0 (2026-08-04): tie level on aggregate going into second leg.
- 🎯 Final scoreline overridden to AI pick 1-0 (aggregate-tie: AI tactical reasoning trusted over Poisson form blend)
- 🎯 Probabilities recomputed from final scoreline 1-0 (aggregate-tie override): 52/32/16
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Saburtalo averaging 1.61 goals scored at home, Larne averaging just 0.56 goals scored overall with recent blanks in last three matches
H2H: Limited data; first leg ended 0-0, suggesting tight, low-scoring encounter
Stakes: Knockout elimination tie — Saburtalo must win or face extra time; Larne will park defensively to force penalties but lack attacking threat
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
First leg ended 0-0 at Larne — tight, cagey tie with no goals across 90 minutes, suggesting both defences are well-organized. Saburtalo will be emboldened playing at home in the second leg.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.