📊 Recent Form
Samsunspor
Fenerbahçe
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Fenerbahçe edge it at 44% against 28% for the draw and 28% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Fenerbahçe at 44% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 58% — a gap against us of 14 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Fenerbahçe came to Samsunspor and did the job efficiently, winning 2-0 to take all three points. Muriqi opened the scoring early on in the third minute with Aydin providing the assist, and that set the tone for what was to come. Fenerbahçe added a second in the 50th minute when Aydin himself got on the scoresheet, this time assisted by Kahveci. Two goals, two different scorers, and a clean sheet—that's a professional performance away from home.
Our model leaned toward this exact scoreline before kickoff, though at 44% for a Fenerbahçe win it wasn't calling it as the overwhelming favourite. The pre-match xG numbers—0.94 for Samsunspor against 1.85 for Fenerbahçe—suggested the visitors would control the game, and that's pretty much what played out. Samsunspor struggled to create and didn't look like troubling the Fenerbahçe keeper, while the visitors were sharper and more clinical in front of goal.
It's a straightforward win that ticks the boxes. Our prediction of 0-2 hit the mark on both the result direction and the exact score, which doesn't happen every week. The underlying expectation was for Fenerbahçe to dominate the xG battle and translate that into goals, and they did exactly that. Sometimes the model gets a helping hand from a match that unfolds as the numbers suggested it might.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor Win Value | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 28% | +9% |
| Draw Value | 10/3 4.20 | 23% | 28% | +5% |
| Fenerbahçe Win | 8/13 1.62 | 58% | 44% | -14% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Samsunspor chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Samsunspor xG 0.94 | Fenerbahçe xG 1.85
Projected: 15% / 31% / 54%
H2H: 0W-4D-4L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
0W-4D-4L for Samsunspor in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.