📊 Recent Form
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Trabzonspor edge it at 42% against 22% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Trabzonspor at 42% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 47% — a gap against us of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Trabzonspor came to Samsunspor and took the game apart, running out 3-0 winners in a dominant display that left little room for debate. Muci opened the scoring in the 28th minute with help from Eskihellac, then Nwaiwu doubled it just before the break. Franculino added a third on 40 minutes, set up by Salah, to put the result beyond doubt. Things got scrappy after that when Kabasakal was sent off for Trabzonspor in the 43rd minute, but by then the damage was done and the game was effectively over.
Our model leaned toward a Trabzonspor win at 42% probability, so we got the result direction spot on—but we missed on the scoreline. We'd predicted 1-2, which would've given Samsunspor a goal of their own. Before kickoff, the reasoning was sound: Samsunspor's poor form and low output (averaging just 0.75 goals) were offset by genuine desperation with relegation looming at home, while Trabzonspor had the quality edge but a patchy away record suggested they might be vulnerable. The match played out on one side of that coin—Trabzonspor's quality simply overwhelmed a Samsunspor side that couldn't muster much resistance and never got a foothold in the game.
A clean sheet and three goals is a professional away performance from Trabzonspor, the kind of result that papers over any nagging concerns about form. Samsunspor's survival battle just got a bit steeper.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor Win Value | 5/2 3.40 | 27% | 36% | +9% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.63 | 26% | 22% | -4% |
| Trabzonspor Win | 1/1 1.97 | 47% | 42% | -5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Samsunspor in relegation danger (P16/18)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Samsunspor averaging only 0.75 goals scored with poor home form (LLD); Trabzonspor averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.04 conceded overall but struggling away (LLLDL)
H2H: Last 8 meetings average 2.8 goals per game, neutral dominance, recent results include a 0-3 Trabzonspor win and two low-scoring draws
Stakes: Samsunspor in relegation danger (P16/18) adds survival motivation at home; Trabzonspor mid-table (P7/18) with normal motivation but stronger quality
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings are evenly split (2 Samsunspor wins, 3 draws, 3 Trabzonspor wins) averaging 2.8 goals per game; Trabzonspor won 0-3 in February 2026 but the April 2026 meeting ended 0-0, suggesting variability in outcomes with a slight Trabzonspor edge in recent form
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
