San Diego dominated Los Angeles Galaxy to secure a convincing 3-1 win at home, moving decisively away from relegation trouble with a commanding display. Achouri opened the scoring early on with an assist from Dreyer in the 11th minute, then Sargeant doubled the lead just after the restart—again set up by Dreyer—to put the home side firmly in control. Galaxy pulled one back through Lozano in the 55th minute, but San Diego's numerical advantage following Tverskov's red card in the 50th minute proved telling. Pellegrino sealed the result in the 70th minute, leaving no doubt about who deserved the three points.

Our model had leaned toward San Diego at 55% win probability, backing a 2-1 scoreline as the most likely outcome. That lean was vindicated—we called the result direction correctly—but San Diego's extra goal means we underestimated their dominance. The designated home side's strong recent form and Galaxy's struggles away from Los Angeles pointed toward a San Diego win, and that's exactly how it played out. The early breakthrough and Dreyer's creative influence in midfield gave San Diego the platform, though the red card and a cleaner second-half performance pushed them over the line more convincingly than we'd anticipated.

For both clubs staring down relegation, this was a crucial three points for San Diego. They controlled the tempo, took their chances efficiently, and didn't let Galaxy back into it despite the visitor's late consolation. It's the kind of performance that matters when every point counts.