📊 Recent Form
San Diego
Philadelphia Union
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. San Diego edge it at 43% against 27% for the draw and 30% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have San Diego at 43% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 35% — a gap in our favour of 8 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 48/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Philadelphia Union dismantled San Diego with a five-goal showing to claim a dominant 5-0 victory. Cavan Sullivan struck twice in quick succession, opening the scoring in the 45th minute with an assist from Indiana Vassilev before doubling the advantage in the 61st minute from the same provider. Bruno Damiani added a third in the 67th minute, set up by Francis Westfield, before an own goal from Aníbal Godoy in the 87th minute made it four. Malik Jakupovic rounded things off in the 90th minute to seal a comprehensive rout that bore no resemblance to what our model had anticipated.
Our prediction of a 2-1 scoreline missed the mark entirely. We'd given Philadelphia just a 30% chance of winning before kickoff, favouring the designated home side with 43% probability despite their mid-table standing and acknowledged low motivation. The form indicators we'd flagged—San Diego's encouraging home run and Philadelphia's patchy away record—simply didn't play out on the pitch. The Union were clinical and dominant throughout, while San Diego couldn't muster the challenge their recent home form might have suggested. It's a sharp reminder that football doesn't always follow the patterns baked into pre-match analysis, and that lopsided scorelines remain genuinely hard to call in advance, even when underlying strength favours one side.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Win Value | 13/8 2.68 | 35% | 43% | +8% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.75 | 25% | 27% | +2% |
| Philadelphia Union Win | 11/8 2.33 | 40% | 30% | -10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 San Diego mid-table (P9) — low motivation
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick — risk factors detected for San Diego, confidence reduced
🔍 Key Stats
Form: San Diego home form LWWWW is encouraging; Philadelphia away form WDWL is inconsistent.
H2H: Limited data available for this fixture.
Stakes: San Diego mid-table with low motivation, but home crowd and decent home run provide a small lift; Philadelphia have normal motivation and are in form overall.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — San Diego is a relatively new MLS franchise, so historical head-to-head records against Philadelphia Union are minimal and carry low predictive weight.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.