📊 Recent Form
San Diego
Philadelphia Union
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. San Diego edge it at 43% against 27% for the draw and 30% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have San Diego at 43% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 35% — a gap in our favour of 8 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 48/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
San Diego edge this one 2-1, but it's far from comfortable. The hosts have been decent recently but they're missing Ingvartsen and Pirani through injury, Sisniega is out with a back problem, and dos Santos is suspended after a red card, so the squad is stretched. Philadelphia are in solid form and will make them work for it, grabbing a goal themselves, which is why both teams score here. San Diego just about have enough at home to nick it, but this one is tight throughout.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Win Value | 13/8 2.68 | 35% | 43% | +8% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.75 | 25% | 27% | +2% |
| Philadelphia Union Win | 11/8 2.33 | 40% | 30% | -10% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 San Diego mid-table (P9) — low motivation
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick — risk factors detected for San Diego, confidence reduced
🔍 Key Stats
Form: San Diego home form LWWWW is encouraging; Philadelphia away form WDWL is inconsistent.
H2H: Limited data available for this fixture.
Stakes: San Diego mid-table with low motivation, but home crowd and decent home run provide a small lift; Philadelphia have normal motivation and are in form overall.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — San Diego is a relatively new MLS franchise, so historical head-to-head records against Philadelphia Union are minimal and carry low predictive weight.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.