📊 Recent Form
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 39%. Los Angeles FC edge it at 38% against 29% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Los Angeles FC at 38% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 42% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 68/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
# Post-Match Recap: San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 Los Angeles FC
A dramatic late comeback lifted San Jose off the canvas in a match that swung wildly on either side of a red card. LAFC had looked in control after Son Heung-Min's finish in the 34th minute, then doubled their lead through Bouanga just after the hour. A minute into the second half, though, Long's dismissal cut LAFC down to ten men and shifted the momentum entirely. Judd pulled one back for San Jose in the 70th minute, and the hosts kept pressing. With eight minutes of added time ticking away, Roberts seized the moment to level, earning his side a point that'll feel like a win after the way the game had unfolded.
Our model called it 1-2 to LAFC, giving the draw only a 29% chance. That was well wide of the mark. The prediction leaned on LAFC's superior recent away form and their dominance in the head-to-head record, but it underestimated San Jose's capacity to respond when it mattered most—and didn't account for how a numerical disadvantage might swing the complexion of the match. The high-scoring trend we'd flagged in this rivalry (averaging 4.7 goals across recent meetings) did come to pass, and both teams did find the net as anticipated. But the specific scoreline and the trajectory of the match told a different story than we'd sketched out beforehand.
A difficult miss for our model, but a reminder that even when the broader shape of a game falls into line with what you'd expect, the precise details—and the drama that turns them—rarely cooperate with predictions.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 15/8 2.88 | 33% | 33% | ±0% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.75 | 25% | 29% | +4% |
| Los Angeles FC Win | 6/5 2.19 | 42% | 38% | -4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🇪🇺 San Jose Earthquakes in European race (P4)
- 🇪🇺 Los Angeles FC in European race (P6)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: San Jose WWDDLLLLDL (home: WLLDL, 20% win rate); LAFC LWDDDLLDWD (away: LDDLW, 20% win rate but stronger xG)
H2H: LAFC dominate 5-1-1 in last 7, avg 4.7 goals/game — historically high-scoring rivalry
Stakes: Both teams in European race (P4 vs P6), creating meaningful motivation on both sides — neither will park the bus
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
LAFC dominate this fixture with 5 wins in last 7 meetings, away teams consistently winning regardless of venue — the most recent H2H at San Jose saw a 2-4 LAFC win in Sep 2025, reinforcing the away-dominant trend.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.