📊 Recent Form
San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United FC
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 42%. San Jose Earthquakes edge it at 41% against 28% for the draw and 31% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 13 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Minnesota United FC came to San Jose and put on a clinic, demolishing the Earthquakes 5-1 in a result that brushed aside our pre-match forecast. Werner opened from the penalty spot for San Jose in the fourth minute, but it was all Minnesota from there. Pereyra levelled it within six minutes, then Yeboah took over the show with a brace either side of half-time—one assisted by Duncan in the 40th, another by Gene in the 44th. Caldeira added a fourth in the 65th, again from Duncan's assist, and Gonzalez wrapped it up in the 86th courtesy of Harvey's set-up.
Our model leaned towards San Jose at 41% probability, with Minnesota given a 31% chance. The scoreline we flagged was a tight 2-1, so getting the direction wrong stings a bit. Before kickoff, the logic looked sound: San Jose were fighting for a European-race spot, Minnesota were dealing with relegation pressure and the head-to-head numbers favoured the visitors. But the match played out completely different. Minnesota's desperation translated into ruthless efficiency rather than the scrap we anticipated, and San Jose's recent home form didn't hold up when it mattered. That's football—sometimes the lower-probability outcome runs away with it, and this was clearly one of those nights.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 11/10 2.12 | 43% | 41% | -2% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 28% | +3% |
| Minnesota United FC Win | 15/8 2.93 | 32% | 31% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🇪🇺 San Jose Earthquakes in European race (P4)
- 🆘 Minnesota United FC in relegation danger (P11, only 1 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: San Jose LLLDLL at home, scoring just 1.1 avg; Minnesota DDLD away but motivated
H2H: Minnesota dominate recent series 4W-2D-2L, avg 3.3 goals/game
Stakes: San Jose in P4 European race; Minnesota in P11 with only 1pt cushion — relegation desperation is a decisive factor
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Minnesota have won 4 of last 8 H2H meetings including three of the last four before April 2026; average of 3.3 goals per game makes high-scoring encounters the historical norm — recent April 4-2 SJ win was an outlier against the trend.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.