📊 Recent Form
Santa Clara
Benfica
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Benfica at 55%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 22% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Benfica at 55% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 68% — a gap against us of 13 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 87/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara Win Value | 7/1 8.50 | 11% | 23% | +12% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.50 | 21% | 22% | +1% |
| Benfica Win | 4/11 1.36 | 68% | 55% | -13% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Benfica in title race (P2)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Santa Clara 60% win rate at home but low xG (0.81); Benfica on 90% win rate with high scoring output (3.21 avg goals)
H2H: Benfica dominate 7/8 meetings, avg 2.9 goals per game, away_dominant pattern
Stakes: Benfica in title race (P2) — highly motivated; Santa Clara mid-table with no exceptional pressure
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Benfica have won 7 of the last 8 meetings including 1-2 and 0-1 wins at Santa Clara's ground — consistent away dominance with tight scorelines typical in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.