Sarmiento Junin pulled off a straightforward upset at home, dispatching Estudiantes L.P. 2-0 in a result that completely bucked our pre-match lean. Martinez opened the scoring early in the 18th minute with an assist from Mavilla, then Gonzalez sealed it in the 80th with Marabel's help. Correa did grab a late penalty for Estudiantes in the 86th, but it only made the scoreline look slightly better for the visitors—the damage was already done.

Our model had this one figured as a tight affair, favoring Estudiantes at 36% win probability against Sarmiento's 34%, with a predicted scoreline of 0-1. The logic was straightforward enough going in: Estudiantes were top of the table and riding strong form, while Sarmiento's home record looked shaky and they had less on the line. We'd also clocked that Estudiantes typically conceded very few goals, and their head-to-head record against Junin was pretty convincing. But Sarmiento came out with real intent, took their chances early, and never let Estudiantes properly into the contest. Sometimes the team with less pressure on them just plays freer, and that's exactly what happened here.

The clean sheet for one side was half-right in the end—just the wrong side—and Estudiantes couldn't conjure enough to turn it around. Not the result we were banking on, but that's what makes football worth watching.