SC Braga absolutely dominated this UEFA Conference League knockout tie, dismantling Železničar Pančevo 4-0 to cruise through on aggregate. The Portuguese side's quality showed from the first half: Horta fired them ahead from the penalty spot in the 27th minute, then Gabriel Silva added a second before half-time with Horta picking out the assist. By the 63rd minute it was effectively over — Horta grabbed his second penalty of the night, and Victor made it four in the same minute after clever work from Horta. Navarro wrapped things up late on, latching onto Victor's pass for the fifth goal of the night. Braga's attacking intent never wavered, and Železničar simply had no answer.

Our model called a 2-0 win for Braga pre-match, which leaned with the 64% win probability we'd assigned them. The result direction was spot-on, but we badly underestimated how thoroughly Braga would dismantle their opponents — the actual 4-0 scoreline tells a very different story about the gap in class on the night. Before kickoff, the form data suggested Braga were the clear favourites and Železničar faced a tough ask, but the margin of victory here suggests we weighted that edge too conservatively. Their shape held up early, yet once Braga got on top they capitalised ruthlessly and the tie never tightened.

It's a clean miss on the exact scoreline, though the fundamental call — Braga progressing comfortably — landed as expected. Sometimes the fundamentals are right and the scoreline surprises you anyway.