SC Braga got the job done at home against Estoril, though it took them until the 83rd minute to seal it. Jonas Wind's goal, set up by Jean-Baptiste Gorby, proved the only one either side could manage. It wasn't the comfortable evening our model had sketched out beforehand—we'd predicted a 2-0 win for Braga—but the fundamental outcome was right. The three points stayed in Braga's hands, and that's what matters.

Before kickoff, our model leaned toward a Braga win with a 61% probability, backed by their strong home form and Estoril's struggling away record. That lean held up, even if the scoreline didn't match. The match did play out broadly in line with what you'd expect from the pre-match shape: Braga controlled the game as the better team at home, and Estoril's relegation battle didn't generate enough to overturn that gap. A 63rd-minute red card for Francisco Reis Ferreira put Estoril on the back foot and left them chasing the game with ten men—the kind of moment that can swing a match's character, especially when the contest is tight. Braga's quality eventually told, but it took patience and a clinical finish late on rather than the kind of domination a 2-0 scoreline might suggest.

Our prediction went for the right direction but missed the exact tally. That's a lean on the likely outcome, not a forecast carved in stone, and sometimes the football gods have other ideas about how many times the ball ends up in the net.