SC Freiburg dismantled Borussia Mönchengladbach with a dominant 5-0 performance that went well beyond what our model had anticipated. Engelhardt opened the scoring in the 23rd minute, assisted by Scherhant, and Matanovic doubled the lead six minutes later with Ginter providing the assist. The decisive moment came in the 52nd minute when Kleindienst was sent off for Mönchengladbach, leaving them to defend with ten men for the entire second half. Matanovic added his second in the 77th, Engelhardt got his second in the 79th from another Ginter assist, and Eggestein sealed it with a 86th-minute finish.

Our pre-match prediction backed a Freiburg win at 61% probability, but we'd called a 2-0 scoreline. The model had expected a clean sheet and tight, controlled tennis rather than an onslaught, based on Freiburg's xG of 2.68 and Mönchengladbach's 0.82 before kickoff. Getting the result direction right but the scale completely wrong tells you that while the underlying form favored Freiburg, nobody saw a red card emerging early in the second half and the visitors folding so comprehensively. Mönchengladbach simply couldn't cope with the numerical disadvantage, and Freiburg punished them ruthlessly. The match unfolded as a Freiburg blowout rather than the measured win we'd leaned toward, and that's a fair reminder that a 61% lean still leaves room for results way outside the central forecast.