📊 Recent Form
SC Freiburg
FC Schalke 04
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts SC Freiburg at 57%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 24% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 10 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 4 goals. Comfortably over 2.5 and above the average match — the model expects both defences to give something up.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
SC Freiburg held off a spirited Schalke challenge to claim a 2-1 win at home, though the match took a decisive turn when Yuito Suzuki was sent off for Freiburg in the 64th minute. Maximilian Eggestein gave the hosts an early lead in the 10th minute, but Schalke levelled through Kenan Karaman just before the half-hour mark, with Adrian Tobias Gantenbein providing the assist. The game looked poised for a close contest until the red card shifted the balance decisively. Freiburg made their numerical advantage count when Keisuke Goto restored the lead in the 85th minute, courtesy of an assist from Vincenzo Grifo, and held on to secure the points.
Our model predicted a 3-1 scoreline with a 57% win probability for Freiburg, so calling the result direction was spot on — but we got the exact score wrong. A one-goal margin represents a narrower victory than anticipated. Before kickoff, the underlying numbers pointed to a comfortable Freiburg win fuelled by their excellent recent form and Schalke's inconsistency, plus the huge gulf in motivation with Freiburg chasing a top-four spot. The early Eggestein goal fit that script, but Schalke's equaliser showed they weren't there to make up the numbers, and only the dismissal of Suzuki tilted the outcome decisively in Freiburg's favour. It wasn't the one-sided affair our forecast suggested, though the result itself landed exactly where we expected.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg Win | 4/6 1.67 | 57% | 57% | ±0% |
| Draw | 3/1 3.93 | 24% | 24% | ±0% |
| FC Schalke 04 Win | 4/1 5.00 | 19% | 19% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 SC Freiburg chasing top-4 (P3)
- 😴 FC Schalke 04 mid-table (P12) — low motivation
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Bundesliga history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Freiburg in superb form — last 5 scores include 4-2, 5-0, 4-1; Schalke inconsistent with two 0-0 draws recently
H2H: Freiburg dominant — 6 wins, 2 draws in last 8; three home meetings all ended 4-0
Stakes: Freiburg chasing top-4 (P3) — high motivation; Schalke mid-table (P12) — minimal pressure or urgency
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Freiburg have won 6 of the last 8 meetings with no Schalke victory; three home fixtures ended 4-0 to Freiburg, indicating consistent and heavy home dominance in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.