Scotland vs Brazil

Brazil put Scotland to the sword in a dominant World Cup display, running out 3-0 winners with a performance that showed exactly why they came into the match as heavy favourites. Vinicius Junior got them rolling early with a finish in the seventh minute, set up by Rayan, then doubled his tally just before half-time when Bruno Guimaraes picked him out in the 45th minute. M. Cunha added a third in the 60th, again from a Bruno Guimaraes assist, to put the tie completely beyond reach and cap a commanding evening in midfield and attack.

Our model had leaned toward Brazil at 70 per cent, though it'd flagged a 1-2 scoreline as the most likely outcome. The actual margin was wider than expected — we got the winner right but didn't call enough goals, particularly underestimating how thoroughly Brazil would dominate the middle third. Going in, we'd noted Scotland's shaky recent form at home and Brazil's attacking depth, even without Raphinha; the match simply bore out those pre-kickoff observations more emphatically than the model had weighted. Brazil's control was near-total, and their clinical finishing on the night left no doubt about the quality gap.

It's a clean lesson in the gap between a probabilistic lean and match reality. We nailed the direction but overestimated Scotland's ability to stay competitive. The 3-0 scoreline is the kind of result that does happen when the better side clicks early and keeps the foot down — it just wasn't the most likely outcome in our eyes beforehand.