Seattle Sounders turned the table on Minnesota United FC with a convincing 3-1 victory, taking control early and never letting go. Jordan Morris opened the scoring in the 16th minute with an assist from Albert Rusnák, and the Sounders doubled their lead before half-time through Dotson in the 35th. Minnesota pulled one back through Markanich in the 57th, set up by Bongokuhle Hlongwane, but Paul Arriola sealed the win for Seattle in the 83rd, again with Rusnák providing the assist. It was a performance that belied the pre-match narrative around depleted squads and relegation stakes.

Our model gave Seattle only a 39% shot at winning this one, leaning instead toward a Minnesota victory at 34% and a draw at 27%. The predicted scoreline of 1-2 reflected that lean toward the visitors. The match didn't pan out that way — Seattle's attacking setup clicked, their midfield held up despite the injury list, and Minnesota couldn't sustain the pressure needed to exploit the home side's weakness. The underlying form data we'd flagged — Seattle's averaging 1.67 goals scored against their conceded, Minnesota's sharper attacking average — suggested a tighter, more open affair. Instead, the Sounders found their finishing when it mattered and closed out the game with composure.

This one stings a bit in the rear-view mirror. We caught the likely shape of the contest but misread which way it'd swing. Seattle's resilience on the day, particularly through Rusnák's creative play feeding both Morris and Arriola, outweighed what looked on paper like Minnesota's stronger attacking threat. That's football — and why probabilities aren't predictions.