🧭 How the Model Sees It
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as low. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Matches between teams of substantially different FIFA rankings in friendly competition typically see the stronger side dominating shot creation and conversion efficiency. A 2-0 result aligns with historical patterns where top-tier African nations produce 2–3 goals against significantly lower-ranked opponents while maintaining defensive solidity.
⚔️ Head to Head
As a regional rivalry between neighbours in West Africa, this fixture has historically been one-sided in Senegal's favour given their superior development pathway and competitive record. The dynamic typically reflects a clear quality gap rather than an evenly contested encounter.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.