Senegal vs Iraq

Senegal put on a commanding display to dismantle Iraq 5-0, with the match effectively settled early when Iraq's R. Sulaka was sent off in the 13th minute. From there, it was one-way traffic. H. Diarra opened the scoring in the fourth minute with A. Seck's assist, and the numerical advantage allowed Senegal to dominate the remainder. I. Sarr made it 2-0 in the 56th minute, then turned provider for P. Gueye's strike three minutes later. Gueye doubled his tally in the 71st minute after I. Ndiaye's cross, before Ndiaye rounded things off with the fifth in the 82nd minute, set up by Gueye. It was a rout.

Our model had called a Senegal win with 71% confidence and predicted a 3-0 scoreline—the right result, but Senegal's ruthlessness in the second half proved greater than anticipated. The early red card shifted the match's texture significantly, handing Senegal far more space to operate than the pre-match setup suggested they'd have. Our projection at the 78-minute mark flagged a clean sheet and comfortable control, which held true, though the finishing in the closing stages was sharper than the model had weighted.

The gap between a 3-0 prediction and a 5-0 reality reflects how red cards can amplify a favourite's advantage beyond typical probabilities. Senegal's dominance was clear from kickoff, but the numerical imbalance turned dominance into demolition. A correct result call, an underestimated margin, and a lesson in how tournaments can pivot on a single disciplinary moment.