📊 Recent Form
Sevilla
Osasuna
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Sevilla at 47%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla Win | 10/11 1.93 | 49% | 47% | -2% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 27% | -1% |
| Osasuna Win | 3/1 4.11 | 23% | 26% | +3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Osasuna mid-table (P11) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Sevilla xG 1.86 | Osasuna xG 1.41
Projected: 46% / 29% / 25%
H2H: 1W-3D-4L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
1W-3D-4L for Sevilla in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
